Rumpus Daily, 13 Nov 2026: Traders keep faith in the Israel-Iran ceasefire to 15 November

In this episode: Traders keep faith in the Israel-Iran ceasefire to 15 November; The Fed looks set to raise rates in December after all; Traders Edge Towards Lutnick Leaving Commerce. Three stories this morning. Traders hold the Israel-Iran ceasefire at ninety-five per cent on Polymarket, even as Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly pressed Donald Trump to restart the war. A December rate rise trades at eighty-nine per cent on Polymarket and eighty-five on Kalshi.

Transcript

Opening

Sheema: Good morning and welcome to The Rumpus Daily. I'm Sheema Sharti.

Neil: And I'm Neil Matthews. Every weekday we bring you the signals from the world's prediction markets. Today is Friday, November thirteenth.

Sheema: Three stories this morning. Traders hold the Israel-Iran ceasefire at ninety-five per cent on Polymarket, even as Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly pressed Donald Trump to restart the war. A December rate rise trades at eighty-nine per cent on Polymarket and eighty-five on Kalshi. And traders have doubled the odds that Howard Lutnick leaves Commerce, though the price has slipped since Thursday.

Neil: The Fed contract carries a million dollars of daily money. Let's start with the ceasefire, because that is where the geopolitical risk sits.

Traders keep faith in the Israel-Iran ceasefire to 15 November

Sheema: Traders keep faith in the Israel-Iran ceasefire to the fifteenth of November. Polymarket's contract pays no if either country strikes the other before eleven fifty-nine on Sunday night, Iran time. It sits at ninety-five per cent for the truce holding.

Neil: It peaked at ninety-eight on Wednesday and has slipped three points since. The news site TDPel Media reported, citing Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth, that Netanyahu pushed Trump to restart the war on a weekend call and Trump refused. That report ran on Thursday, after the peak, so we don't know what caused the slip.

Sheema: What does ninety-five per cent leave on the table?

Neil: Five points of breach, which is too much. For Israel to strike against open American opposition in two days is a high bar. The house call is that the truce holds through Sunday and even ninety-five overstates the breach.

Sheema: And past Sunday? The ladder falls with each rung: eighty-six per cent through the twenty-second of November, sixty-five by the end of December. Would a report of Israel acting alone move it?

Neil: Straight away. That is what would prove us wrong.

The Fed looks set to raise rates in December after all

Neil: The Fed looks set to raise rates in December after all. A hot October inflation report put a quarter-point hike at eighty-nine per cent on Polymarket for the ninth of December. That takes the top of the Fed's range from four per cent to four and a quarter. Kalshi has the same hike at eighty-five.

Sheema: A week ago Polymarket had it at sixty-six. Why the move?

Neil: Stubborn prices in the October data, and officials saying so. A half point or more sits at ten per cent, no change at two. I think the ten per cent on the half point is too low.

Sheema: I'd push back. Officials left that half point open rather than arguing for it, and the October split inside the Fed was over whether to hike at all. Ten per cent fits.

Neil: Home sales are at a sixteen-year low and the thirty-year mortgage sits at seven point one one per cent. Traders expect the Fed to hike into that.

Sheema: A second hot inflation report before the meeting is what forces half a point. Until then, eighty-nine underrates the quarter point, and any upper bound but four and a quarter on the ninth proves us wrong.

Traders Edge Towards Lutnick Leaving Commerce

Neil: Traders edge towards Lutnick leaving Commerce. On Polymarket the contract on Howard Lutnick leaving the Commerce Department by the thirty-first of December has gone from twenty per cent a week ago to forty-five today. Kalshi prices it at forty-seven.

Sheema: The contract pays on an announcement of resignation or removal before that date. On a bar that low, forty-five per cent looks fair to me.

Neil: The rule is easy, the evidence is thin. Buyers pushed it to forty-nine on Thursday and it fell back to forty-five by this morning, with no exit announced. Buyers stopped short of an even bet.

Sheema: That is a fade in one day, not a collapse.

Neil: And the wider contract, on Lutnick leaving the whole administration before 2027, sits at forty-one. Leaving the administration means leaving Commerce, so the narrower one should sit at or above it, which it does. An announcement before year end proves our call that forty-five overstates him wrong.

Close

Sheema: Neil, thanks very much.

Neil: Thanks, Sheema.

Sheema: That's The Rumpus Daily for Friday, November thirteenth. We'll see you tomorrow.