Traders keep faith in the Israel-Iran ceasefire to 15 November
Netanyahu reportedly pressed Trump to restart the war, but traders still give the truce 95%.
In one line: Israel and Iran trade no strikes before 15 November ends, because Trump has opposed Netanyahu's push; even 95% leaves too much room for a breach.
Donald Trump and Binyamin Netanyahu clashed in a heated phone call over whether to restart full-scale war on Iran, the news site tdpelmedia reported on 12 November, citing the Israeli outlets Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth. Mr Netanyahu pushed for military action and Mr Trump opposed it. The call took place over the weekend. The same day, the New York Times reported that Mr Trump is pulling JD Vance off the Iran talks to work on a fraud campaign, which raises questions about his plan to end the war.
Polymarket's contract on the Israel-Iran ceasefire lasting through 15 November trades at 95%. It pays NO if either country takes a qualifying military action against the other, such as an air strike. The deadline is 11:59pm Iran Standard Time on 15 November. The price climbed 17 points over the seven days from 78% on 6 November and peaked at 98% on 11 November. It has since slipped 3 points, -2.1pp of them in the last 24 hours, by the venue's figure. Later dates in the same event slope down: 92% for 18 November, 86% for 22 November, 79% for 30 November, 71% for 15 December and 65% for 31 December.
The call shows an Israeli leader who wants to fight and an American president who told him no. For Israel to strike Iran within 3 days, it would have to act against open American opposition while America is still at war with Iran. Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, urged an immediate end to that war at the UN climate summit (COP31) in Antalya, headtopics reported on 12 November. Traders put the Netanyahu risk further out: the odds fall with each later date, to 86% by 22 November.
Israel and Iran will carry out no qualifying strike on each other before 11:59pm Iran time on 15 November, and the 95% price still sets the chance of a breach too high. The case against rests on Mr Netanyahu's push, and would firm up on a report that Israel will act alone. A reported Israeli or Iranian air strike on the other before the deadline proves this call wrong. A new Israel-Iran front would put more Gulf oil at risk and lift the oil price that the USO fund tracks, up 2.84% on 12 November.