Traders Edge Towards Lutnick Leaving Commerce

A 45% price means the market sees a near-even chance he is gone by year end.

In one line: Lutnick remains Commerce Secretary through 31 December with no exit announced, and Polymarket's 45% overstates the odds he goes.

Traders on Polymarket have more than doubled the odds that Howard Lutnick leaves the Commerce Department by the end of the year. The contract rose 25 points over the 7 days, from 20% on 6 Nov to 45% on 13 Nov. It touched a low of 17% on 7 Nov and a high of 49% on 12 Nov.

Kalshi prices the same question at 47%. Two independent books within two points of each other reinforce the move. A broader Polymarket contract, on whether he leaves the Trump administration before 2027, stands at 41%. Leaving the administration means leaving Commerce too, so the Commerce contract should sit at or above the broader one, and it does.

The rule sets a low bar for Yes. Any announcement of his resignation or removal before 11:59pm ET on 31 December resolves the contract at once, whatever date the departure takes effect.

The price path since the high cuts against the buyers. They pushed the contract to 49% on 12 Nov and stopped short of an even bet. By 13 Nov it had given back 4 points to 45%.

Lutnick is still Commerce Secretary on 31 December, and no departure is announced before then. The 45% price overrates his exit. The call is wrong if an announcement of his resignation or removal comes before 11:59pm ET on 31 December, which settles the contract Yes.