Rumpus Daily, 11 Nov 2026: Hegseth's exit odds tumble after House Republicans shelve impeachment

In this episode: Hegseth's exit odds tumble after House Republicans shelve impeachment; Traders abandon the December hold as Waller talks of a bigger hike. Two stories this morning. House Republicans shelved the impeachment articles against Pete Hegseth yesterday, and traders cut his exit odds sharply. Thirteen per cent still looks too high.

Transcript

Opening

Sheema: Good morning and welcome to The Rumpus Daily. I'm Sheema Sharti.

Neil: And I'm Neil Matthews. Every weekday we bring you the signals from the world's prediction markets. Today is Wednesday, November eleventh.

Sheema: Two stories this morning. House Republicans shelved the impeachment articles against Pete Hegseth yesterday, and traders cut his exit odds sharply. Thirteen per cent still looks too high. And the Fed: a hot inflation reading and a hawkish governor have traders pricing a quarter-point rise at eighty-six per cent, with a hold down to four.

Neil: Both repriced hard. Let's start with the defence secretary.

Hegseth's exit odds tumble after House Republicans shelve impeachment

Sheema: Hegseth's exit odds tumble after House Republicans shelve impeachment. Polymarket's contract on Hegseth leaving office by December thirty-first trades at thirteen per cent. A week ago it was forty-three. On November fourth it touched seventy per cent. Two separate Kalshi contracts on the same question both sit at fifteen per cent.

Neil: The shelving removes the only exit route that had a vote attached. Strip out the vote and only a resignation or a firing remains, announced within fifty-one days. Does thirteen per cent reflect that?

Sheema: Five per cent fits the evidence better. Thomas Massie, who led the impeachment drive, is retiring. The opposition that might press harder takes seats in January, after this contract expires. And Hegseth used his first news briefing in months to defend his record.

Neil: A firing needs no vote, only a word from Trump. Enough controversy surrounds Hegseth that the White House could act.

Sheema: I'd push back: a firing needs the White House to want him gone, and the reporting shows Republicans closing ranks around him, not turning on him. That is the mechanical problem with the firing case.

Neil: Fair. The watch, then, is a resignation or removal announcement before year-end. That is what proves this wrong.

Traders abandon the December hold as Waller talks of a bigger hike

Sheema: The Fed. Traders abandon the December hold as Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, puts a half-point rate rise on the table.

Neil: The hold contract, which pays if the Fed leaves its benchmark rate unchanged at the December ninth meeting, is at four per cent on Polymarket. It peaked at thirty-six per cent on November sixth. October's Consumer Price Index, the government's main measure of inflation, showed price pressures broadening, and that report landed the same day Waller spoke. ITB, the homebuilder fund, fell just over two per cent on the day, a sign that rate-sensitive shares could stay under strain into the meeting.

Sheema: Waller named the bigger move, yet traders price a half-point rise at only eleven per cent. Isn't that too low?

Neil: Waller is one vote on the rate-setting committee. One governor cannot move the committee alone. Floating a half-point can also make a quarter-point easier for colleagues to back, so the signal is softer than the headline. Watch the half-point contract: if it clears twenty-five per cent before November twenty-eighth, the quarter-point consensus breaks.

Sheema: And if it stays below twenty-five per cent?

Neil: Then the mechanics favour a smaller step, and eleven per cent on the bigger move is too high.

Sheema: Four per cent still overstates a hold on December ninth.

Thanks, Neil.

Sheema: Thanks, Neil.

Close

Sheema: Neil, thanks very much.

Neil: Thanks, Sheema.

Sheema: That's The Rumpus Daily for Wednesday, November eleventh. We'll see you tomorrow.