Hegseth's exit odds tumble after House Republicans shelve impeachment

Traders now give the defence secretary a 13% chance of leaving by year-end, and two Kalshi books agree at 15%.

In one line: Pete Hegseth will still run the Pentagon on 31 December. With the impeachment articles shelved, even 13% gives his departure too much weight.

House Republicans shelved the eight impeachment articles against Pete Hegseth, the New York Times reported on 10 Nov, sparing the defence secretary a damaging rebuke and potential ouster. The articles came from a drive led by Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican. They accuse Hegseth of illegally starting the war with Iran, directing extrajudicial killings and ignoring laws meant to limit civilian casualties. Hegseth broke a monthslong drought of news briefings to defend his record, and AsianetNews reported the same day that he vowed not to apologise for using the military's full force.

Polymarket's contract on Hegseth leaving office by 31 December trades at 13%. Traders cut it 22 points in the last 24 hours and 29 points over the seven days, from 43% on 4 Nov, and it sits 56 points below that day's high of 70%. Two Kalshi contracts on the same question both stand at 15%, so separate books agree. The shorter dates sit lower still: 4% on Polymarket and 6% on Kalshi for an exit before December, and 1% for one by 14 November.

The shelving removes the only route to his going that had a vote attached. The charges are grave, but the reporting describes a Republican majority that closed ranks around him. Massie, who led the drive, is retiring after losing a primary to a challenger Trump backed. The opposition that remains, such as Nancy Lacore, the former Navy reserve chief Hegseth fired, takes its seats in January, after this contract ends. A Yes now needs a resignation or a firing, and Hegseth used his first news briefing in months to defend his record rather than to step aside.

Hegseth is still secretary of defence on 31 December, and 13% still overrates his exit, though by less than the 35% the contract traded at when the last digest ran on 10 Nov. The rule pays Yes as soon as a resignation or removal is announced, whenever it takes effect, so what remains is the chance of such an announcement within 51 days with no vote behind it, nearer 5% on this reporting. The other side's best case is that a firing needs no vote, only a word from the White House. The call is wrong if Hegseth or the White House announces his resignation or removal by 31 December.

Sources