Rumpus Daily, 7 Nov 2026: Netanyahu's odds halve as Herzog prepares to name his pick

In this episode: Netanyahu's odds halve as Herzog prepares to name his pick; Anthropic IPO odds snap back to 79% for November. Two stories this morning. Netanyahu's odds have roughly halved in a week as Israel's president prepares to pick who gets the first chance to form a government.

Transcript

Opening

Sheema: Good morning and welcome to The Rumpus Daily. I'm Sheema Sharti.

Neil: And I'm Neil Matthews. Every weekday we bring you the signals from the world's prediction markets. Today is Saturday, November seventh.

Sheema: Two stories this morning. Netanyahu's odds have roughly halved in a week as Israel's president prepares to pick who gets the first chance to form a government. And Anthropic's chances of listing its shares by November thirtieth swung from eighty-seven per cent to forty-eight and back to seventy-nine in four days. The date, not the deal, is the question there.

Neil: The ladder of deadline contracts inside the Anthropic event put almost all the weight in the last ten days of November. That is a very specific bet.

Netanyahu's odds halve as Herzog prepares to name his pick

Sheema: Netanyahu's odds halve as Herzog prepares to name his pick. Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, will announce on Sunday which politician gets the first chance to form a government. He has been meeting party leaders for two days after an inconclusive election. Arab-led parties, boosted by historically high Arab turnout, have signalled they would back a bloc to remove Netanyahu. On Polymarket, the contract asking whether Netanyahu becomes the next prime minister has fallen from forty-three per cent a week ago to twenty-one per cent now.

Neil: Kalshi puts him at seven per cent. That is fourteen points apart on the same question. My read is that some of Polymarket's twenty-one is traders pricing a repeat election. If coalition talks collapse, Netanyahu gets a second shot, and if Israel calls an early election, Polymarket's rule pays on whoever takes the oath after that election. So twenty-one per cent may be less about this coalition and more about his chances in a fresh vote.

Sheema: Kalshi handles that case differently. Kalshi lists a "no one" outcome at thirty-nine per cent, which appears to absorb the repeat-vote case. And Kalshi still leaves Netanyahu at seven. So doesn't that suggest twenty-one is too generous even after you adjust for the rulebook difference?

Neil: The Arab-backed coalition still has to be built. Herzog could hand Netanyahu the mandate first. If those talks collapse, he is back in play.

Sheema: That path exists. But a leader whose rivals have an Arab bloc lined up behind them, priced at seven per cent on one venue and twenty-one on another, still looks expensive at twenty-one. Watch what Herzog announces tomorrow. If Netanyahu gets the first mandate and Polymarket climbs back above forty per cent, the market has changed its mind. Until then, twenty-one looks high.

Anthropic IPO odds snap back to 79% for November

Neil: Anthropic's IPO odds, then. Polymarket traders put the chance of Anthropic, the AI company, listing its shares on a public exchange by November thirtieth at seventy-nine per cent, up nineteen points in the last twenty-four hours, after falling to forty-eight per cent the day before.

Sheema: Why does the week's swing matter? Is it conviction or noise?

Neil: The ladder says noise. A ladder here is a set of contracts on the same outcome but with different deadlines. A listing by November fifteenth trades at zero per cent. By November twentieth, forty-nine per cent. By November thirtieth, seventy-nine. No chance this coming week, an even chance by the twentieth, most of the weight in the final ten days. The contract pays only if shares open for trading by eleven fifty-nine Eastern on November thirtieth. A delay of days turns it to no.

Sheema: So a price that went from eighty-seven to forty-eight to seventy-nine in four days is reacting to timing, not settling it. Our call is that Anthropic lists, but after November thirtieth, and seventy-nine per cent overstates the date. Is there a contract on what the company will be worth on its first day?

Neil: Polymarket's market-cap contracts put only twenty-one per cent on a first-day close below one point two five trillion dollars. Traders mostly value it above that mark. When it lists, it will matter. The seventy-nine per cent contract is only about whether that happens before December.

Close

Sheema: Neil, thanks very much.

Neil: Thanks, Sheema. Herzog names his choice tomorrow. That is the one to watch.

Sheema: That's The Rumpus Daily for Saturday, November seventh. We'll see you tomorrow.