Netanyahu's odds halve as Herzog prepares to name his pick

Arab-led parties signal they would back a coalition to oust him, yet Polymarket still prices him above Kalshi.

In one line: Netanyahu will not be sworn in as Israel's next prime minister, and Polymarket's 21% gives him more chance than the coalition arithmetic warrants.

Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, will decide on Sunday which politician gets the first chance to form a government, The National News reported on 6 Nov. He makes the choice after two days of talks with party leaders following an inconclusive election, the New York Times reported the same day. Scripps News (kgun9) reported on 6 Nov that Arab-led parties, lifted by historic Arab turnout, signalled they would back a coalition seeking to oust Benjamin Netanyahu.

Polymarket traders have cut Netanyahu's chance of being the next prime minister from 43% on 31 Oct to a low of 20%, a fall of 23 points over the seven days. The contract now trades at 21%, down 3 points in the last 24 hours. Gadi Eizenkot leads the same event at 62%, with Avigdor Lieberman at 9% and Naftali Bennett at 2%.

The reporting and the price point the same way, and the open question is how far. Kalshi asks the same question and puts Netanyahu at 7%, 14 points below Polymarket, with Eizenkot at 49%. The two books are not built alike. Kalshi lists a "no one" outcome at 39%; Polymarket has none, and its rule says that if Israel calls an early election, the contract resolves to whoever takes the oath "after that election." Part of Polymarket's 21% is therefore a bet on Netanyahu winning a repeat vote, a case Kalshi's "no one" line appears to absorb. Even allowing for that, 21% looks too high for a leader whose rivals now have an Arab bloc signalling it would back them.

Netanyahu is unlikely to be sworn in as Israel's next prime minister, and Polymarket's 21% appears to overstate his chances. The best case for him is that a rival coalition resting on Arab-led parties still has to be built, which leaves him a path if those talks collapse and Israel holds a second vote. The call is wrong if Herzog hands Netanyahu the first chance on Sunday and the Polymarket price climbs back above 40% in the days that follow.

Sources