Traders expect pump prices to hold above $3.81 tomorrow
Kalshi's $3.81 contract climbed 57 points in a day, and its siblings price the AAA figure below $3.82.
In one line: AAA's national average for regular gas on 16 Nov comes in above $3.81, an outcome the 92% price still underrates.
Kalshi traders now back a national average for regular gas above $3.81 in AAA's reading for 16 Nov. The contract stood at 28% on 12 Nov, touched 95% on 14 Nov and trades at 92% today. That is a rise of 57.0 points in the last 24 hours, on the venue's own figure, and 67 points over the seven days.
The other contracts in the event pin the answer to a single cent. The $3.80 line trades at 98% and the $3.70 line at 99%. The $3.82 line sits at 9%, and every line from $3.84 up trades at 2% or less. Read together, traders put the 16 Nov figure between $3.81 and $3.82, with small doubt on either edge.
A reading of exactly $3.81 pays No, and the climb from 28% shows traders came to expect a higher figure as the week went on. The slip from the 95% high shows a few now see the average easing back. A yearly oil forecast cannot move a one-day AAA figure. The International Energy Agency's forecast, reported by azernews on 14 Nov, that global oil demand falls by 2.7m b/d to 102.3m b/d in 2026 speaks to the trend over months.
The call is that AAA's 16 Nov average lands above $3.81, and 92% underrates it, because the $3.80 line at 98% shows traders treat a fall of a cent or more in a day as remote. With one day to run, a No requires the AAA average to drop to $3.81 or below, a level traders have priced out since 14 Nov. The best case against rests on the retreat from the 95% high on 14 Nov: if the average is easing, less than a cent separates a Yes from a No. AAA's 16 Nov figure at $3.81 or lower proves the call wrong.