Traders cut the odds the Iran blockade ends this year

The year-end contract has fallen from 48% to 19% since 9 Nov, as Trump pulled Vance off Iran talks.

In one line: Washington will not officially end or suspend its naval blockade of Iran before 31 December, and even 19% overstates the chance.

Donald Trump said he was pulling JD Vance, his vice-president, off Iran talks to focus on a fraud campaign, and wrote "We don't need a deal with Iran", the New York Times reported on 12 November. A day later the paper described a shift towards a long-term economic pressure campaign, with Trump showing little urgency over a nuclear agreement. The naval blockade he reinstated on 13 July against Iranian ships and their customers is the sharpest tool of that pressure.

Traders on Polymarket now give 19% to an official American announcement, by 31 December, that the blockade has ended, been lifted or been suspended. The contract stood at 37% on 8 Nov and peaked at 48% on 9 Nov. It has fallen 18 points over the 7 days, 29 points from that high and 3.5 points in the last 24 hours. The rest of the event agrees. The 15 Nov and 30 Nov contracts trade at 1% and 8%, while the 31 March 2027 contract holds at 54%, so traders push most of their hope into the new year.

The reporting is split. The Times of India reported on 12 November that Trump had authorised Vance to resume negotiations and that Vance was pursuing talks with Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. The New York Times quotes Trump's own words that day and describes his strategy the next, and its account is the more direct. A president who says he needs no deal and is settling into a waiting game has little reason to give up his main lever before the year is out. The contract does not require a deal, but an announcement without one would undo the strategy the paper describes.

The United States will not officially announce the end, lifting or suspension of the blockade by 31 December, and 19% still overstates the chance. The best case against is the Vance channel: if Trump's authorisation stands and the talks with Rezaei produce a trade, a suspension could come fast. The call is wrong if a US government official announces the blockade ended, lifted or suspended before 11:59pm ET on 31 December. If it holds, the blockade stays, and so do the maritime risks and oil-price strain that Gulf News reported for Gulf residents on 13 November.

Sources