Traders put Lutnick's exit odds at 43% after a week of swings

Commerce Secretary books on both venues price his leaving that job at 53% to 57% by year's end.

In one line: Howard Lutnick is still in the Trump administration on 31 December, and the 43% price overrates an announced exit.

Traders pushed the odds that Howard Lutnick leaves the Trump administration before 2027 from 13% on 10 Nov to 67% on 13 Nov, then cut them back. The Polymarket contract now trades at 43%. It is up 24 points over the 7 days from 19% on 7 Nov and down 24 points since the 13 Nov high. Over the last 24 hours it gained 2.0 points, by the venue's own figure.

The contract pays Yes if it is announced that Mr Lutnick will leave, or he otherwise ceases to be part of the administration, by 11:59pm ET on 31 December. It has 48 days to run. Contracts on whether he is out as Commerce Secretary trade higher: 53% on Polymarket, and 56% and 57% on two Kalshi books. Those pay if he leaves the job for any reason, including a move to another post, so they should sit at or above this one. The nearer dates trade far lower, at 22% on Polymarket and 25% on Kalshi that he is out by the end of November.

The two venues agree, and two independent books agreeing count for more than either alone. They price an exit by year's end close to even money and an exit by 30 November at about one in four, so most of the risk they see falls in December. The 10-point gap between this contract and the paired Kalshi Commerce book at 53% is the price traders put on Mr Lutnick leaving Commerce but staying in the administration. What the books lack is conviction: a price that ran from 13% to 67% and back to 43% within the week has not found a level.

Mr Lutnick is still in the administration on 31 December, and 43% overrates his exit. The other side's best case is the Commerce books holding above 50% on both venues, and under this contract's rule an announced resignation settles it at once, whatever date the exit takes effect. The call is wrong if a resignation or removal is announced before 11:59pm ET on 31 December, and in trouble if the Kalshi contract for an exit before 1 December trades above 50% before 30 November. A wrong call puts a new head at the Commerce Department before the year is out.