Traders back Janković ahead of Ljubljana's 15 November vote

Zoran Janković trades at 76% after a week's climb, with Luka Mesec the only rival priced above zero.

In one line: Janković becomes Ljubljana's mayor, either on 15 November or in a 29 November runoff, an outcome the 76% price still underrates.

Traders lifted Zoran Janković's chance of winning the Ljubljana mayoralty from 56% on 7 November to 76% on 14 November, a rise of 20 points over the week. The climb ran unevenly. The contract dipped to a low of 54% on 11 November, reached a high of 82% on 13 November and has since given back 6 points from that peak. In the last 24 hours it gained 4.5 points, by the venue's own figure.

The other contracts in the event price a two-way race. Luka Mesec trades at 21%, while Aleksandar Repić and Anton Rop sit at 0%. Janković and Mesec are the only contenders traders give any chance.

The venue's rule frames the read. Voters go to the polls on 15 November, and the terms say that 'if no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 29, 2026.' The contract pays on 'the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of this election', so a first round without a majority sends the question to that runoff, with Mesec the only other name the book prices. The swing between 54% on 11 November and 82% on 13 November reads as doubt about whether Janković clears a majority at the first count, not about who leads.

Janković will become mayor, and 76% underrates him. Traders had him at 82% on 13 November, no rival but Mesec carries a price, and a runoff would set him against the one opponent the book rates at 21%. Mesec's best case is that runoff, where a single challenger could gather votes split among other candidates in the first round; a strong Mesec showing on 15 November would make that case. The call is wrong if the official first-round count on 15 November puts Mesec ahead, or if Mesec wins a runoff on 29 November. The result decides who runs the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia's capital.