Traders now expect Pete Hegseth to stay into 2027

Odds of his exit before the new year fell from 56% to 14% in a week.

In one line: Pete Hegseth stays in the Trump administration through 31 December, and the 17% chance traders give his exit is too high.

Traders spent the past week abandoning the view that Pete Hegseth would leave the Trump administration before 2027. On Polymarket, a prediction-market venue, the contract stood at 44% on 5 Nov and touched its 7-day high of 56% the same day. Since that high it has fallen 42 points, to 14%, a level it first reached on 10 Nov. Over the 7 days it lost 30 points.

The venue's live quote sits above that daily reading, at 17%, up 2 points in the last 24 hours on the venue's own figure. The narrower question, whether he is out as defence secretary before 1 Jan, trades at 14% on Polymarket and 13% on Kalshi, a second prediction-market venue, so two independent books agree to within a point. Traders give 5% to his going by 30 Nov. They give 3% on Polymarket and 4% on Kalshi to his impeachment before the year ends.

Traders priced an exit as better than even on 5 Nov and had given that view up by 10 Nov. The rule leaves one open route: an announcement of his resignation or removal before 11:59pm ET on 31 Dec pays Yes at once, whenever he actually leaves. So the contract needs only a statement, not a departure. Even with that easy test and 50 days left, traders put the chance below one in five, and both venues price impeachment below 5%, at 3% on Polymarket and 4% on Kalshi.

Hegseth will not be announced as leaving the administration before 2027, and 17% overstates the chance. The strongest argument for a higher price is the rule itself: one announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline pays Yes at once. Traders also thought an exit more likely than not only a week ago. A published report before 11:59pm ET on 31 Dec that he is resigning, or that the president will remove him, would make that case right and the call wrong.