Traders bet Jensen Huang leaves Nvidia before the year is out

An 86% price says Huang goes, though Nvidia's board has opened an inquiry and backs him.

In one line: Huang is still Nvidia's chief executive on 31 December with no departure announced, because the board chose an outside inquiry over removal and 86% overrates an exit.

Nvidia's board answered the case against Jensen Huang with an inquiry, not an exit. The Economic Times reported on 11 November that Huang faces scrutiny over a reported relationship with a suspected Chinese spy, and that the board opened an independent investigation and expressed confidence in his leadership. Business Insider reported the same day that the board hired the law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz to lead the probe, and the New York Times reported on 10 November that Joon H. Kim, a former acting US attorney, leads it. Senator Kevin Cramer urged Huang to resign over extortion risks, and the Times reported on 10 November that President Trump received a reminder of the intelligence before Huang boarded Air Force One for Beijing.

Polymarket's contract on a departure announced by 31 December rose from 12% on 8 November to 86% today, up 74 points over the seven days and 67 points in the last 24 hours. It sits 5 points below the 91% high it reached earlier today. The event's other contracts put most of that weight on the next few hours: 12 November trades at 70%, 13 November at 73% and 30 November at 85%. Kalshi asks whether Huang leaves before 1 January, not whether a departure is announced. It prices 87%, so two separate books agree at year end.

The price runs ahead of the reporting. The rule pays only when "Jensen Huang, NVIDIA, or their authorised representatives publicly and definitively announce" that he has resigned or been removed, or will be, and no report through 11 November meets that test. The board's one public word was confidence in him, and its one act was to hire a law firm to investigate. A board set on removing its chief executive within days seldom first commissions an outside inquiry led by a former prosecutor. A 70% price for an announcement today needs either an inquiry that ends within days or a resignation before it reports.

Huang is still Nvidia's chief executive on 31 December with no departure announced, and 86% is too high. The other side's case rests on political pressure the board cannot outlast. Intelligence put before the president and a senator's public demand could force a resignation before the inquiry reports. A statement from Huang or Nvidia before 11.59pm ET on 31 December that he has resigned or will be removed proves the call wrong.

Sources