Netanyahu's odds slide as Eizenkot leads both books

Polymarket has Netanyahu at 22% and Kalshi at 9%, weeks past the contract's date.

In one line: Netanyahu will not be sworn in as prime minister after the October election, and Polymarket's 22% still overrates him.

Polymarket's Netanyahu contract fell from YES 30% on 5 Nov to YES 22% on 12 Nov, down 8 points over the seven days, after touching a 7-day low of 16% on 8 Nov; the venue's own 24-hour figure is -1.7 points.

The same event puts Eizenkot at YES 64% on Polymarket, with Kohavi, Sa'ar and Lieberman at 0%, 0% and 5%. Kalshi's book tells a sharper version: Netanyahu at YES 9%, Eizenkot at YES 48%, and 38% on no one being sworn in at all. Two independent books agree on the direction and disagree on the size, 12 points apart on Netanyahu, an automated match the venue scores at 0.95.

The contracts ask who is sworn in after the election. The rule says the winner must be formally sworn in, and the contract has run 15 days past its 28 Oct 2026 resolution date. A price cannot show that a swearing-in happened; it shows what traders expect. Both books expect someone other than Netanyahu, and Polymarket's own event prices Eizenkot well ahead of him.

The call: Netanyahu is not sworn in as prime minister following the October election, and Polymarket's 22% is too high against Kalshi's 9%. The observation that would prove it wrong is a swearing-in of Netanyahu reported by a named outlet before the contract settles.