Traders lift Netanyahu's odds of leaving office before 2027

The contract climbed from 13% to a 46% peak on 8 November, then eased to 35%.

In one line: Netanyahu will still be Israel's prime minister on 1 January 2027; the 35% chance traders give a handover before then is too high.

Traders on Polymarket now give Benjamin Netanyahu a 35% chance of leaving office before 2027, after a week in which the price ran from a low of 7% on 4 November to a high of 46% on 8 November. Over the 7 days it gained 24 points, from 13% to 37%, and gave back 9 points from the peak; it lost 3.5pp in the last 24 hours.

The event asks which listed leader is the first to leave office before 2027. Its only other contract, on Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's president, trades at 0%. The Netanyahu price therefore amounts to a forecast that he stops being Israel's prime minister within 51 days. The venue's rule sets a high bar: "An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution."

That rule shapes the read. A lost vote, a resignation speech or an election result does not pay; Netanyahu has to be gone from the office itself. In Israel a prime minister keeps the job until a successor's government wins a vote in the Knesset, the parliament, and building a coalition takes weeks. The contract reached 46% on 8 November and has fallen 9 points since.

Netanyahu will probably still be prime minister on 1 January 2027, and 35% overstates the chance of a handover. The rule pays only on permanent removal, and 51 days is not enough time for a new coalition to form and be sworn in under Israel's parliamentary rules. The contract could still pay: it reached 46% on 8 November, and if a rival coalition wins a Knesset confidence vote before the year ends, the price is too low. A new Israeli prime minister sworn in before 1 January 2027 proves this call wrong.