Hegseth's exit odds slip despite Massie's impeachment filing
Traders bet a House resolution against the defence secretary will not remove him this year.
In one line: Hegseth is still running the Pentagon on 31 December despite Massie's impeachment filing, and Polymarket's 35% overrates his going.
Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky filed a resolution in the House on 9 November to impeach Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, eptrail reported that day. Massie said Hegseth's actions amounted to "high crimes and misdemeanors". The filing came as Congress returned for a lame-duck session that, 6abc reported the same day, had to avert a government shutdown and pass the farm bill, reform of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and the annual defence bill. 6abc listed Hegseth's impeachment among the items looming over it.
Traders cut the odds after the filing. Polymarket's contract on Hegseth leaving by 31 December trades at 35%, down from 43% on 8 November. It has swung hard this week, from 37% on 3 November to a high of 70% on 4 November and a low of 31% on 6 November, before reaching 36% on 10 November. That spike is the best case for YES, since it shows how fast traders can turn. The shorter contracts in the event price an exit by 30 November at 20% and by 14 November at 8%. Kalshi agrees. Its two contracts on an exit before 2027 sit at 37% and 38%, and its contract on an exit before 1 December at 23%.
The fall fits the facts. A House resolution removes no one: impeachment needs a House majority, and removal needs two-thirds of the Senate to convict. One member's filing is not a vote, and 6abc's list shows a session crowded with must-pass bills. If Hegseth goes this year, he will probably resign or be removed by the president, and nothing in the reporting points to either.
Hegseth remains Secretary of Defense through 31 December, and the 35% price still overrates his exit. The call is wrong if he or the White House announces his resignation or removal on or before 31 December.