Traders still expect the Iran blockade to outlast November

Only a fifth expect Washington to call the blockade off within three weeks.

In one line: Washington will not officially end or suspend its naval blockade of Iran by 30 November, and a 22% chance overstates the odds that it does.

Traders cut the odds that Washington ends its naval blockade of Iran by 30 November to a 7-day low of 12% on 8 Nov, then pushed them back to 22% today, up 8.5 points in the last 24 hours. The contract began the week at 27% and hit its 7-day high of 33% on 2 Nov. It pays out if the US government publicly and officially announces the end, lifting or suspension of the blockade, which Donald Trump reinstated on 13 July, before 11:59pm ET on 30 November.

The other dates in the same event draw a steady curve. The 15 November contract trades at 10%, the 31 December contract at 41% and the 31 March 2027 contract at 70%. Traders see an end to the blockade as more likely than not by spring, and as a long shot over the next three weeks.

The rebound carries less weight than it seems. The drop to 12% and the climb back came on 8 and 9 Nov, and the price still sits below where it began the week. The near date tells the clearer story: at 10%, the 15 November contract shows traders expect no announcement soon. A one-day jump that returns the price towards last week's level is a correction, not a sign that Washington is preparing to stand down.

Washington will not officially announce an end or suspension of the blockade by 30 November, and 22% runs too high. The best case for the other side is the speed of the rebound: traders who added 8.5 points in a day may be pricing a sudden political decision, and they will be right if one comes. The call is wrong if the US government publicly and officially announces the end, lifting or suspension of the blockade by 11:59pm ET on 30 November. If it holds, the US navy keeps targeting Iranian ships and the ships of Iran's customers into December.