Traders push an end to Iran's blockade into next year

Polymarket gives the 15 November deadline a 4% chance, with later dates priced higher.

In one line: Washington will not announce an end or suspension of the Iran blockade by 15 November, and Polymarket's 4% still overstates the chance.

Polymarket traders give the United States a 4% chance of announcing an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 15 November. A week ago they gave it 21%. The contract fell 16 points over the 7 days, from 21% on 1 November to 5% on 8 November, and the venue shows a drop of 3.5 points in the last 24 hours. It pays Yes if the US government officially announces the end, termination, lifting or suspension of the blockade on Iranian ships and their customers by 11:59pm Eastern time on 15 November. Donald Trump reinstated that blockade on 13 July 2026.

The later dates in the same event show where traders now put a lift. The contract for 30 November trades at 18%, the one for 31 December at 37% and the one for 31 March 2027 at 66%. Only the March date puts an announcement ahead of even odds.

The price and the other dates agree. With 8 days left, a Yes would need Washington to move faster than traders expect for any deadline before the spring. The week's slide shows them pushing back their timing rather than abandoning the idea of a lift. That reading holds together, and nothing in the price path argues for a turn inside the next 8 days.

The United States will make no official announcement ending or suspending the blockade by 15 November, and the 4% price still overstates the chance. The best case against is that the rule counts a suspension, a lower bar than a full lift, and a single official statement would meet it. An official US announcement of the end, lifting or suspension of the blockade by 11:59pm Eastern time on 15 November would prove this call wrong. If the call holds, Iranian ships and their customers stay under the American naval blockade into the second half of November.