Traders lift the odds Hegseth leaves the Pentagon this year

A 10-point rise in a day still leaves the odds he goes by 31 December below even.

In one line: Hegseth stays Secretary of Defense through 31 December with no exit announced; Polymarket's 43% overrates his going.

Traders on Polymarket raised the odds that Pete Hegseth stops being Secretary of Defense by 31 December by 10.0 points in the last 24 hours, to 43%. The contract has swung hard all week. It stood at 34% on 1 Nov, touched its 7-day low of 28% the same day and hit a high of 70% on 4 Nov. Today's price is 27 points below that high and 9 points above where the week began. The last digest, on 5 Nov, found it at 49%.

Kalshi prices the same question lower. Its contract on Hegseth leaving before 2027 sits at 37%, 6 points under Polymarket, and a second Kalshi contract on him being out before 1 Jan 2027 sits at 39%. Both books put his exit this year below even, with Polymarket the more willing. The shorter dates sit lower still: out by 30 November at 28% on Polymarket and before 1 Dec at 27% on Kalshi. Only the Kalshi contract running to 1 Feb 2027 crosses even, at 56%.

The ladder of dates says traders see his exit as more likely in the new year than in the 54 days left. The near-term contracts give him under three chances in ten of going this month. A price that ran from 28% to 70% and back to 43% inside a week shows traders still split. Polymarket's rule also lifts its price a little: an announcement of 'resignation/removal' before the end date resolves Yes 'regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect'. Even so, 43% is too high for a man the same book expects to be in post at the end of November.

The call: Hegseth stays Secretary of Defense through 31 December and no resignation or removal is announced before then, so the 43% Polymarket price for his exit is too high. The call is wrong if official information records his departure, or an announcement of one, on or before 31 December. The best case against it is the 56% Kalshi gives his exit by 1 Feb 2027, which shows traders expect one soon; if it lands before the new year, today's price is right. The answer decides who runs America's armed forces into 2027.