Netanyahu's odds sink after Herzog taps Eisenkot to form government

Eisenkot holds 67 recommendations to Netanyahu's 46, and Polymarket still prices Netanyahu well above Kalshi's 6%.

In one line: Netanyahu will not be sworn in after the October election. Eisenkot's lead in recommendations makes Polymarket's 19% too generous.

Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, tapped Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief, to try to form a government on 7 November, the New York Times reported. Eisenkot went in with 67 recommendations against 46 for Benjamin Netanyahu, according to wionews the same day. Herzog said the mandate was not guaranteed, and the outlet pointed to mutual vetoes among the parties that complicate any coalition.

Traders have cut Netanyahu's chances hard. Polymarket's contract on whether he is the next prime minister trades at 19%, down 2 points in the last 24 hours. The contract stays open past its 28 October date because its rule says "the individual must be formally sworn in", and no one has been. Over the 7 days it fell 24 points, from 42% on 1 November to 18%, and it now sits 2 points above its 7-day low of 16%, set on 8 November. Eisenkot leads the same event at 66%, with Avigdor Lieberman at 5% and Naftali Bennett at 3%. Kalshi prices Netanyahu at 6%, puts Eisenkot at 58% and gives 34% to no one becoming prime minister.

Both books agree on the order: Eisenkot first, Netanyahu a distant second. The gap between them probably comes from Kalshi's no-one outcome, which Polymarket does not list, so Polymarket spreads the chance of a failed formation across the named candidates. Eisenkot's 67 recommendations outnumber Netanyahu's 46 by 21, the reporting shows. That still leaves 19% too high for Netanyahu.

The case for Netanyahu rests on Herzog's own warning. Recommendations are not a coalition, and if mutual vetoes break Eisenkot's 67 apart, Netanyahu's 46 is the only rival bloc the reporting names. Against that, headtopics reports that Arab parties won 19 seats on 27 October, which it describes as a hurdle for Netanyahu.

Netanyahu will not be sworn in as prime minister after the October election, and Polymarket's 19% overrates him. The call is wrong if Eisenkot hands back his mandate and Herzog passes it to Netanyahu before 31 December.

Sources