Hegseth impeachment bet climbs but has already slipped from its peak

Traders lifted the odds from 2% on 4 November to 59%, short of the 69% high on 7 November.

In one line: The House will not impeach Hegseth before the year ends; the 59% that Polymarket and Kalshi both show sets those odds too high.

Traders on Polymarket now give 59% that the House impeaches Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of War, by 31 December. The contract pays Yes if the House approves one or more articles of impeachment by simple majority before 11:59pm ET that night. The price stood at 14% on 1 November and fell to a low of 2% on 4 November.

Over the 7 days the contract gained 45 points, and the venue's own 24-hour figure is +12.8 points. It has still fallen 10 points since its 69% high on 7 November. Kalshi asks the same question, impeachment before 1 January 2027, and also prices it at 59%. Kalshi's later contracts climb only slowly from there: 73% for impeachment before 1 April and 75% before 1 July 2027.

The shape of that curve carries the read. Traders price 59% for a vote inside the next 54 days, rising to 75% by 1 July 2027. Most of the chance sits before the year is out, though the curve leaves room for a case that builds into the spring. Yet the price jumped 57 points from the 4 November low to the 69% high, and has since given back 10 points. A swing that size shows fast repositioning by traders. It does not show a vote on the House calendar.

The call is that the House does not pass articles of impeachment against Mr Hegseth by 31 December, and 59% overrates a chance closer to one in three. A majority of the full chamber must vote for articles within 54 days, and a price 10 points off its peak shows the traders themselves are unsure. The best case for the other side is that two venues agree, and that a determined majority can bring articles to the floor quickly. A House roll call approving articles before 11:59pm ET on 31 December would prove this call wrong.