Netanyahu's path narrows after Israel certifies election
Polymarket still gives him 28% against Kalshi's 9%, after the president accepts the certified count.
In one line: Netanyahu will not take the oath as prime minister after the 27 Oct vote. Polymarket's 28% overstates him, and Kalshi's 9% sits closer.
Israel's president accepted the certified results of the 27 Oct election, the New Indian Express reported on 4 Nov, in a blow to Benjamin Netanyahu's claim that the vote was rigged. Netanyahu and his supporters had said, without evidence, that Arab-led parties "stole" the election, possibly with foreign help.
Polymarket traders cut Netanyahu's chance of becoming prime minister by 16 points over the past seven days, from 46% on 29 Oct to 30% on 5 Nov. The contract touched 25% on 4 Nov, the day of the report, recovered 5pp, and has lost 1.6pp in the last 24 hours to stand at 28%. Gadi Eizenkot leads the same event at 57%. Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett hold 4% each.
Kalshi's contract on the same question trades at 9%, and the paired quote of 11% leaves the venues 17 points apart. Its book also carries an outcome Polymarket's does not: no one becomes prime minister, at 45%, just ahead of Eizenkot at 40%.
The facts favour Kalshi. Polymarket's rule pays only on an oath: "To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in." No one has been sworn in, and nothing in the reporting moves Netanyahu closer. The president has now accepted the count Netanyahu sought to contest. Reports on 2 Nov said Netanyahu had dropped coalition talks. A 28% price treats him as a serious contender on evidence that runs the other way.
Netanyahu will not be sworn in as prime minister from the Knesset elected on 27 Oct, and Polymarket's 28% overstates his chances. The best case for Polymarket is deadlock: Kalshi's 45% on no one taking office shows how far a new government is from formed, and if no coalition forms and Israel holds another election, he could contend again. A report by 30 Nov that the president has asked Netanyahu to form a government would prove this wrong. The answer decides whether Israel's next government is led by a man who called its election stolen.