Traders now expect Republicans to lose all seven mapped Senate races

Republicans winning none of the seven states now trades at 90%, with Alaska the only live doubt.

In one line: Republicans win none of the Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, and the 90% price still gives too much to an Alaska hold.

Polymarket traders now put 90% on Republicans winning none of the seven Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. The contract stood at 26% on 28 Oct and dipped to a low of 12% the same day. It reached 88% on 4 Nov after gaining 53.0 points in the last 24 hours, a window that takes in election day. Americans voted on Tuesday 3 Nov, and the New York Times listed Maine and Alaska that day among 11 Senate races to watch.

The contract belongs to a build-your-map event in which each outcome names the exact set of these states that Republicans win. This one names none of them, so it pays only if Republicans lose all seven. Over the 7 days it rose 62 points, and 76 points from the low on 28 Oct. The only other map with real weight is the one in which Republicans win Alaska alone, at 11%. Every other map listed sits at 0%. The single-state contracts point the same way. A Republican win in Michigan trades at 2% on Polymarket and 1% on Kalshi, and Kalshi prices Republican wins in Iowa at 1% and Ohio at 0%.

Read together, the prices say traders see one open question, Alaska, and almost none in the other six, Kansas and Texas included. The backdrop fits a bad night for the president's party. The Detroit News noted on 3 Nov that the sitting president's party has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterms since the second world war, and Republic World reported more than 57m early ballots, ahead of four years ago in many close states. Neither fact is a result. The rule pays according to which races "are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs", and the part still to come is a declared winner in each of the seven.

The call: Republicans lose all seven races, Alaska among them, and the 90% price still gives too much to a Republican hold there. The case against is Alaska itself, the one race both the New York Times and the 11% map single out, and a Republican win there would pay that map instead. A declared Republican winner in Alaska, or in any of the other six, by the end of November would prove the call wrong. If it holds, Republicans lose seven Senate seats, and the Associated Press puts the Democrats' bar for control at four flips.

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