Traders price a US strike on Iran after the October deadline

The October truce contract trades at 85% while the 3 November contract sits at 6%.

In one line: No qualifying US strike hit Iran before the 31 October cutoff, so this contract pays Yes, an outcome its 85% price still underrates.

The October US-Iran ceasefire contract still trades 3 days past its resolution date, after losing and winning back most of its value in two days. The contract asks whether the truce held through 31 October. It touched 100% on 2 November, fell to a low of 27% on 3 November and has climbed back to 85%.

The rest of the event shows where traders put the break. The contract for 2 November trades at 74%, while those for 3, 5, 6 and 7 November all sit at 6%. Over the 7 days the October contract is down 7 points from 92%, and the venue shows a move of -13.8pp in the last 24 hours.

The rule decides this on timing alone. It pays No if the US takes "a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time", meaning an air or surface-to-surface missile strike "that directly impacts Iran". The fall to 27% shows traders briefly feared the window would catch a strike. The climb back to 85%, with the 2 November contract priced below it, may reflect the wait for the venue to rule rather than a confident read on strike timing.

No qualifying US strike hit Iran before 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on 31 October, and the contract pays Yes, which 85% underrates. The best case against it is the 27% low, which shows how sharply the price moved on 3 November and leaves room for a No ruling. A report dating a US strike on Iran to 31 October or earlier, or a No ruling from the venue, would prove the call wrong. For readers who will never trade it, the 3 November contract matters more: at 6%, it shows traders expect the truce to break with a US air or missile strike on Iran by the end of that day.