Traders keep lifting Eizenkot after the contract's listed date passes

Polymarket prices him at 39%, up 18 points from the 28 Oct low, ahead of Kalshi's 30%.

In one line: Eizenkot will not be sworn in as Israel's prime minister after this election; Polymarket's 39% overrates him, and Kalshi's 30% sits closer to the truth.

Gadi Eizenkot's contract to become Israel's next prime minister trades at 39% on Polymarket, up 18 points from its low of 21% on 28 Oct. It stood at 54% on 26 Oct and hit 69% on 27 Oct, election day. By the next day it had fallen 30 points from that high. Traders have lifted it since: 6 points since our digest of 30 Oct, and 3.9 points in the last 24 hours.

The listed resolution date of 28 Oct has passed, but the rule ties payment to an oath, not a date. The contract resolves to "the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election". It adds that "to count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in." That swearing-in is the part of the rule that prices across the event treat as still to come.

The other contracts split the field between two men and a large share for nobody. On Polymarket, Benjamin Netanyahu trades at 36%, Avigdor Lieberman at 5% and Yossi Cohen at 1%. Kalshi asks the same question and prices Eizenkot at 30%, Netanyahu at 22% and Lieberman at 6%. It puts 39% on no one becoming prime minister after this election. Both books put Eizenkot first, and they differ by 9 points on him.

Kalshi's book is the sounder of the two. Its largest single price sits on nobody taking the oath, an outcome it lists in its own right. Polymarket's listed contracts carry no such line, so that weight sits on the named men instead. Eizenkot's climb since 28 Oct reads as traders unwinding an election-night overreaction, not as a sign that his government is nearer.

Eizenkot will not be sworn in as prime minister after this election, and Polymarket's 39% gives him too good a chance. The best case against this is that he leads on both venues and has gained 18 points since 28 Oct, which would be right if he assembles a majority. A report that he has been sworn in, or both venues pricing him above 50% on 30 Nov, would prove the call wrong. The answer decides who leads Israel's next government.