Netanyahu reportedly drops coalition talks as Polymarket trims his odds

Polymarket still gives him 36%, at least twice Kalshi's price, as Fitch warns of repeat elections in April.

In one line: No Netanyahu government takes office from the Knesset elected on 27 October, and a 36% Polymarket price overstates his chances of an oath.

World Israel News reported on 1 November that Benjamin Netanyahu had abandoned efforts to form a government and would push for new elections. The same day the Jerusalem Post reported a warning from Fitch, an international rating agency, that without a majority the Knesset would dissolve and Israel would vote again in April. Gadi Eisenkot, the opposition leader, set four conditions for joining his coalition and said he would use the Knesset majority against Netanyahu to press for a state inquiry, national service for all and repeal of the judicial overhaul, according to the Indian Express.

Polymarket prices Netanyahu at 36%: −6pp in the last 24 hours and 22pp below the 7-day high of 58% on 28 Oct. Over the 7 days he is +9pp from 27% on 26 Oct, after a low of 19% on 27 Oct. Eisenkot leads the event at 43%, with Avigdor Lieberman at 5% and Naftali Bennett at 4%. Kalshi's own book shows Netanyahu at 14%, while the paired quote between the venues puts him at 18%. On either figure Kalshi rates him at half Polymarket's price or less, with Eisenkot at 27% and a contract on no one becoming prime minister at 45%.

Much of the gap between the venues comes from how each book is built. Polymarket pays on whoever takes office after the 2026 election, and its rule says that person "must be formally sworn in." No one has taken the oath, so the contract stays open past its 28 Oct date. Kalshi lets traders back no one, while Polymarket offers no such outcome and the printed rule does not say how an April vote would count. Polymarket traders seem to file part of that repeat-election path under Netanyahu's name.

Netanyahu will not be sworn in as prime minister from the Knesset elected on 27 October, and Polymarket's 36% rates him too high. The main risk to the call is Yair Golan's warning on 1 November, per the Daily Times, that Netanyahu could use renewed fighting with Iran to stay in power; if war returns and partners rally to him, the call fails. A Netanyahu government sworn in before 31 December 2026 would prove it wrong.

Sources