Abbott holds a shrinking lead in the Texas governor's race

The Republican's odds have fallen 10 points this week, to 59% from 69% on 26 October.

In one line: Greg Abbott wins the Texas governor's race on 4 November. The market's 58%, after a sharp one-day fall, underrates the Republican.

Traders cut Greg Abbott's chances of winning the Texas governor's race from 69% on 26 October to 59% on 2 November, and the latest quote stands at 58%. Most of that fall came late. The venue records a drop of 8.1 points in the last 24 hours alone, two days before the vote on 4 November.

The contract pays if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Texas governor's election. Its sibling in the same event, on a Democratic win, trades at 43%. The two prices sum close to 100%, so the Democratic contract has taken up the ground Abbott gave away. Traders shifted money across the event, not simply out of one side of it.

The shape of the week tells more than its size. For most of the week the price drifted lower before it broke in a single session. A break that late means traders now see a contest where on 26 October they saw a clear Republican edge. The evidence here shows the change of mind but not its cause, so any reading of it is thin. Even after the fall, Abbott leads 58% to 43%, and a one-day drop this steep, this close to the vote, probably overshoots.

Abbott wins on 4 November, and 58% is too low a price for that outcome. The best case against is that the one-day slide reflects late movement among voters, in which case 43% for the Democrat is the honest price and the slide has further to run. The call is wrong if the Democratic nominee is declared the winner when results come in on 4 November. The answer decides which party holds the Texas governor's office for the next term.