Netanyahu's bloc falls short and the price still holds above Kalshi's
Likud and its allies won 53 seats, but Polymarket traders give him a 42% chance of returning as prime minister.
In one line: Netanyahu takes no oath as prime minister from this parliament by 31 December 2026, and Polymarket's 42% rates his chances too high.
Netanyahu's Likud and its right-wing allies won 53 seats in Israel's 27 October election, eight short of the 61 needed for a majority, Kyiv Post and The CSR Journal reported on 31 October. Gadi Eizenkot's opposition bloc won 48. Arab parties hold 19 and could decide who governs. The Times of Israel reported the same day that Jabareen of the Joint List pledged to remove Netanyahu's government.
Polymarket prices Netanyahu at 42% to be the next prime minister. That is down 1 point in the last 24 hours and up 14 points over the 7 days. The week swung hard. The contract hit its 7-day low of 19% on 27 Oct, polling day, reached a high of 58% on 28 Oct, and has lost 16 points since that high. In the same event, Eizenkot trades at 34% and Avigdor Lieberman at 4%. Kalshi prices the same question at 18% for Netanyahu, 20% for Eizenkot and 52% for a "No one" outcome.
The two venues disagree on more than the level. Kalshi puts Eizenkot narrowly ahead of Netanyahu, while Polymarket puts Netanyahu in front. The seat count sides with Kalshi. Netanyahu needs eight more seats, and the Arab parties are closed to him. The Times of Israel says high crime and far-right ministers drove their record turnout. That leaves him to peel eight members off Eizenkot's 48. Eizenkot's bloc and the 19 Arab seats together make 67, enough to govern if he can hold them.
The contract is 4 days past its listed 28 Oct date, but its rule pays only on the next person "officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister". It adds that "the individual must be formally sworn in." The reports of 31 October describe a stalemate, not a swearing-in. The price is a forecast of coalition talks, not of a result.
Netanyahu will not be sworn in as prime minister from this parliament by 31 December 2026, and Polymarket's 42% overstates him. The best case against is that a 48-seat bloc that needs Arab votes may split before it agrees, handing Likud its eight seats. Reports of opposition parties opening talks with Likud would make that case. The call is wrong if Netanyahu is formally sworn in by 31 December 2026. It decides whether the government whose far-right ministers drove record Arab turnout stays in office.