Traders lift Lisnard into second place behind Le Pen

His odds rose from 14% to 20% in a week, leaving him second only to Le Pen.

In one line: Lisnard will probably not win France's 2027 presidential election; at 20%, traders overstate a candidate whose price swung between 12% and 20% in one week.

Traders on Polymarket lifted David Lisnard's chance of winning France's next presidential election to 20% on 31 October, up 6 points from 14% on 24 October. The week did not run in a straight line. The price fell to a low of 12% on 25 October and has since risen 8 points, with 4.5 points of that coming in the last 24 hours.

The gain makes him the second favourite among the contracts listed for the race. Marine Le Pen leads at 41%, and no one else listed tops Christine Lagarde's 4%. At the last digest, on 4 October, Lisnard stood at 12%.

The path suggests traders have not yet settled on a price. Most of the week's gain came in a single day. A price that dips to 12% and then climbs to 20% inside a week is more consistent with sporadic buying than with a settled change in belief. Le Pen, not Lisnard, remains the candidate the field is priced around.

Lisnard will probably not win the 2027 election, and 20% overstates his chance, as 12% did at the last digest. The best case for the price is that traders have now lifted him twice this month and set him alone behind Le Pen. That view would prove correct only if the field outside Le Pen narrows to Lisnard before the first round. The call is wrong if he wins when the contract resolves on 19 April 2027, and an earlier sign against it would be his price still at or above 20% on 30 November.