Traders keep Iotova favourite in Bulgaria after her odds fall sharply

Iotova's odds have slid 21 points in a week, yet traders still make her favourite at 67%.

In one line: Iotova will win Bulgaria's presidency once results are reported, and her 67% price after a 21-point weekly fall underrates her.

Traders cut Iliana Iotova's chances of winning Bulgaria's presidency from 88% on 24 Oct to 67% on 31 Oct on Polymarket, a fall of 21 points over the seven days. The low came on 30 Oct, when the contract touched 59%. It has since won back 8 points, but it is still down 16.0 points over the last 24 hours.

The only other contract in the event, on Andrey Gyurov, trades at 34%. The two prices add up to 101%, so traders treat this as a two-way race. The contract pays on the winner "based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting", and its rule counts "any potential second round". It is listed to resolve on 2 Nov.

The evidence is the price alone, and it is thin. The price path shows a favourite under strain, not a favourite overturned. Even at its 59% low, Iotova's contract left her ahead of Gyurov. The contract has swung between 89% and 59% in a week, and the last digest, on 26 Oct, found her at 65%. Swings that wide in both directions point to volatile trading, not to a settled new view that Gyurov leads.

The call is that Iotova will win the presidency, and that 67% underrates her. Her contract held above 59% through its worst day and recovered from there. The other side has a fair case: a 21-point slide in a week may mean traders see a second round that Gyurov could win, and a strong first-round showing for him would prove them right. The call is wrong if credible reporting, in results from 2 Nov or after any second round, names Gyurov the winner.