Ramaswamy withdrew the ad. Traders weigh whether that settles it
Two outlets report the spot is off Ohio air, and the 25% left on No turns on the rule's wording.
In one line: Ramaswamy's campaign pulled the Acton mother ad before the 31 Oct deadline, and 75% gives too much weight to doubts about the rule's wording.
Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign has taken down its attack ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother, two outlets reported on 30 Oct. Cleveland.com's Capitol Letter wrote that the ad "won't be airing in Ohio again", and WKBW reported that Ramaswamy ended the widely criticised spot.
Traders moved fast but not cleanly. The Polymarket contract on whether the campaign pulls the ad stood at 24% on 24 Oct, touched a low of 3% that day, and reached 95% on 30 Oct as the reports landed. It now trades at 75%, 20 points below that high, though still up 28.9 points in the last 24 hours on the venue's figure and 51 points over the week.
The gap between the reports and the price is about wording, not facts. The rule pays Yes if the campaign pulls the ad by 11:59pm ET on 31 Oct, and counts it pulled if Ramaswamy or an authorised representative of his campaign "publicly announces that the campaign has stopped, or will stop, airing the advertisement", or under a second condition that the rule text, as given here, does not spell out in full. Neither report, in the passages quoted here, cites Ramaswamy or an aide. That is the part of the rule not yet shown to be met, and it is what the 25% on No is pricing.
Both reports describe a deliberate choice, and WKBW attributes the decision to the campaign. Two newsrooms describing the same campaign decision on the same day suggests at least a campaign source, even though neither passage quoted here names one. Taken together, the evidence tilts towards Yes, and the 25% left on No is too large.
The call: the Ramaswamy campaign pulled the ad inside the window, and the 75% price underrates it. The best case for No is that both reports rest on ad-tracking data or unnamed sources and the venue reads the rule strictly; that case is right if the contract resolves No on 1 Nov, or if the ad returns to Ohio air before midnight ET on 31 Oct.