Hegseth's exit odds build after a week of swings

The market now gives the defence secretary a one-in-three chance of leaving by year-end, up 11 points in a week.

In one line: Pete Hegseth will still hold the Pentagon's top job on 31 December, with no exit announced, and the 33% price overstates his chance of going.

Traders added 11 points to the odds that Pete Hegseth leaves the Pentagon this year over the 7 days from 24 Oct to 31 Oct, taking the contract from 22% to 33%. The climb was not smooth. The price hit 41% on 27 Oct, fell 8 points from that high, then gained 4.0 points in the last 24 hours.

The Polymarket contract asks whether Mr Hegseth ceases to be Secretary of Defense at any point before 31 December. An announcement is enough to settle it. Under the venue's rule, "an announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to 'Yes'", even if he stays in post for weeks afterwards. With 62 days left, traders put the chance that he quits or is removed at one in three.

The week's shape tells more than its last price. A run to 41% and a quick retreat show traders who moved first and doubted later. The last day's gain wins back only half of that fall. That path suggests the market could not agree on a trigger, not that one has arrived.

The call is that Mr Hegseth is still in office on 31 December with no exit announced, so 33% is too high. The other side's best point is that on 27 Oct traders rated his exit at 41%, two chances in five. If the price reclaims 41%, the bull case deserves a second look. An official announcement of his resignation or removal before 31 December would prove the call wrong.