Traders lift Eizenkot again after his election-night fall

Polymarket prices Eizenkot at 31%, above Kalshi's 19%, and both books put Netanyahu ahead of him

In one line: Eizenkot will not be sworn in as Israel's prime minister after this election, and Polymarket's price gives him too good a chance.

Polymarket traders drove Gadi Eizenkot's chance of becoming Israel's next prime minister to 69% on 27 Oct, election day, then cut it to 21% on 28 Oct. The contract has climbed back since, gaining 10 points from that low. It stood at 31% on 30 Oct, down 18 points over the 7 days from 49% on 23 Oct.

Benjamin Netanyahu leads the same Polymarket event at 43%, with Naftali Bennett at 5% and Avigdor Lieberman at 3%. Kalshi asks the same question and prices Eizenkot at 19% and Netanyahu at 22%. Its highest-priced contract, at 51%, is "No one".

The two books agree on the order and disagree on the size. Both put Netanyahu ahead of Eizenkot, but Kalshi traders put half their weight on "No one", a bet that no prime minister is sworn in within that contract's terms. Polymarket's event lists no such outcome, and its traders rate Eizenkot higher than Kalshi's do.

The contract has passed its 28 Oct resolution date. It pays on "the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election", and "the individual must be formally sworn in." That swearing-in is the part not yet met. The 31% price shows traders expect it to come later.

Eizenkot will not be sworn in as prime minister after this election, and Polymarket's 31% overrates him. Kalshi's 19% is the more cautious price and the better guide. The best case against is the election-night peak and the rebound since, which show traders still see a path for him, and a report that Israel's president has asked him to form a government would make it right. The call is wrong if Eizenkot is formally sworn in as prime minister. It is also wrong if, by 30 Nov, the Polymarket contract trades above 50% on such a report.