Traders cut Nvidia's odds of a year-end crown as Apple rises

Nvidia's chance of ending 2026 as the world's largest company fell from 72% on 28 Oct to 53%

In one line: Apple, not Nvidia, finishes 2026 as the world's most valuable company. Nvidia's 53% leans on retaking a lead traders expect Apple to hold at October's end.

Traders on Polymarket cut the chance that Nvidia ends 2026 as the world's largest company from a seven-day high of 72% on 28 Oct to 53%, its low for the week, as Apple's chance rose. The contract pays if Nvidia is the largest company by market capitalisation at the close on 31 December.

Apple, the only other contender the event takes seriously, now stands at 42%. Alphabet is at 1%, and Microsoft and SpaceX are at 0%. A separate contract on the 31 October ranking puts Apple at 61% and Nvidia at 38%. Traders therefore expect Apple on top at month end and Nvidia back in front by December.

That expectation may be too generous to Nvidia. The New York Times reported on 29 Oct that investors are showing little patience for lavish spending and meagre returns on companies' artificial-intelligence bets, with Microsoft up and Google down. If that impatience reaches the companies that buy Nvidia's chips, it presses on the demand behind Nvidia's value, though the Times draws no such link and the inference is this digest's own. Kazakhstan's plan to become a physical-AI hub with Nvidia, reported by Computer Weekly on 29 Oct, is an intention, not an order, and does not answer that doubt. The price asks Nvidia to retake within 63 days a lead traders expect Apple to hold at month end.

Apple, not Nvidia, will be the world's largest company at the close on 31 December, and the 42% price on Apple's contract underrates it. The call is wrong if consensus reporting after the 31 December close names Nvidia the largest company, which is what the venue's rule pays on.

Sources