Traders lift odds that Washington ends its Iran blockade by November

The November contract rose five points in a week; October trades at 3%, December at 40%.

In one line: Washington will not officially end or suspend its naval blockade of Iran before 30 November, and the 28% price runs too high.

Traders on Polymarket raised the odds that the United States will announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 30 November, from 23% on 22 October to 28% on 29 October. The path was uneven. The contract fell to a low of 21% on 23 October, climbed to a high of 30% on 28 October, and rose 5 points in the last 24 hours by the venue's own figure. It now sits 2 points below that high.

The other dates in the event show the shape of the bet. The October 31 contract trades at 3%, so traders see almost no chance of an announcement before the month ends. The December 31 contract trades at 40%. The curve climbs from 3% to 28% to 40%. Traders expect any end to come late, and they give better than even odds that none comes this year.

The rule sets the bar. It pays only if the US government or an authorised representative publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting or suspension of the blockade on Iranian ships and the ships of Iranian customers, by 11:59pm Eastern Time on 30 November. That bar is lower than it looks, because a suspension counts as well as a full lifting. Still, Donald Trump reinstated the blockade only on 13 July, and the 3% October price shows traders expect nothing in the days left this month. The evidence for a turn within 33 days is thin: a 7-point climb from the 23 October low, then a slip from the peak.

The call: the United States does not announce an end or suspension of the blockade by 30 November, and 28% overstates the chance. The best case on the other side is that the 7-point climb since 23 October shows money moving towards an end, and that a short suspension would be enough to pay. An official US announcement ending, lifting or suspending the blockade by 11:59pm ET on 30 November would prove the call wrong. If the call holds, Iranian ships and the ships of Iran's customers stay under American naval blockade into December.