Polymarket lifts Eizenkot to 31%, well above Kalshi's 19%

A 5.8-point daily rise opens a 12-point gap with the rival venue on Israel's next prime minister.

In one line: Eizenkot will not be sworn in as Israel's prime minister after this election. Polymarket's 31% overrates him, and Kalshi's 19% sits closer to the truth.

Polymarket traders raised Gadi Eizenkot's chance of becoming Israel's next prime minister to 31%, up 5.8 points in 24 hours. The contract pays yes only if he is the next person to take office following the election the venue lists for 27 October 2026. Its rule sets the bar plainly: "To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in."

Kalshi prices the same question at 19%. The venues pair the two contracts with 0.95 confidence, so this is one question on two books, and they sit 12 points apart.

The gap is the finding. Two independent books that agreed would make a strong case, but two that differ by 12 points mean at least one has misjudged the odds. Kalshi's 19% looks the sounder figure. Polymarket's price jumped 5.8 points in a single day and now stands well clear of the other venue, and a one-sided move of that size usually reflects one book's buying more than a shift in the candidate's prospects. The rule also demands more than a strong showing at the polls. Only an oath of office settles it, and a candidate needs a government behind him to reach that point.

Eizenkot will not be sworn in as prime minister after this election, and Polymarket's 31% overstates his chance. The other side's best case is that Polymarket's buyers are reading the coalition arithmetic faster than Kalshi's. That case would show as Kalshi climbing towards 31% rather than Polymarket falling back towards 19%. The call is wrong if Kalshi's price rises to meet Polymarket's by 30 November, or if Eizenkot takes the oath as the rule requires. The answer decides who leads Israel's next government.