Netanyahu holds near even odds as Israel's election leaves no majority

Neither bloc won a majority; Polymarket prices him at 46%, Kalshi at 29%, a 16-point gap

In one line: Netanyahu will not be sworn in from this parliament by the end of 2026; Polymarket's 46% overstates him and Kalshi's 29% sits closer to the evidence.

Neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor his rivals won a majority in Israel's election, the New York Times reported on 28 October. His right-wing coalition and the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot both fall short, with votes still being counted, and a surprise turnout by Arab parties makes them possible kingmakers. The paper reports that Netanyahu lost some support but has several ways to stay in power. Eisenkot can govern only with Arab parties or members of Netanyahu's alliance, and both routes are hard.

Polymarket prices Netanyahu at 46% to be the next prime minister. The contract fell to a 7-day low of 19% on election day, 27 October, then rose 27 points to a high of 58% on 28 October. It has lost 12 points since that high and 1.5pp in the last 24 hours, leaving it up 19 points over the 7 days. Eisenkot trades at 24% in the same event. Kalshi prices the same question at 29% for Netanyahu, 13% for Eisenkot and 54% for no one becoming prime minister.

The venues sit 16 points apart, and the reporting sides with Kalshi. Kalshi lets traders price a deadlock directly, and deadlock leads its event. The 58% peak on 28 October coincided with the Times reporting relief among his supporters that he still had a chance. A chance is not a majority, and the contract now sits well below that peak.

The listed resolution date, 28 October, has passed, but the rule says that "to count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in." He has not been sworn in. The Times describes bitter coalition talks still ahead, with nearly every side disappointed, so the 46% is a forecast of a deal not yet made.

Netanyahu will not be sworn in at the head of a government formed from this parliament by the end of 2026, and Polymarket's 46% overstates him. The best case against this call comes from the Times itself, which counts several routes for him to stay in power. A coalition deal outside his bloc, a report of his swearing-in by 31 December, or Kalshi climbing above 46% to meet Polymarket would prove the call wrong.

Sources

• What to Make of Israel’s Ambiguous Election (New York Times)
• Israel’s Parties Gird for Wrangling to Form a Government, With No Clear Path (New York Times)
• An Inconclusive Vote Leaves Israelis Pondering an Uncertain Future (New York Times)
• Netanyahu Did Not Win the Israeli Election, but He Is Far From Out (New York Times)
• 4 Takeaways From the Incomplete Israeli Election (New York Times)
• Surprise Showing by Arab Parties in Israeli Vote Puts Them in Spotlight (New York Times)
• Israel’s opposition may not be able to form a government, but it still could control Parliament. (New York Times)
• Eisenkot’s ‘Catch-22’: Main Rival of Netanyahu Has No Easy Options (New York Times)