Traders swing back to Netanyahu for Israel's first mandate

Netanyahu's contract jumped 34.5 points in a day and leads Gadi Eizenkot, priced at 36%.

In one line: Benjamin Netanyahu, not Gadi Eizenkot, will be the first person Israel's president asks to form a government, an outcome a 60% price still underrates.

Traders on Polymarket lifted Benjamin Netanyahu's chance of receiving the first mandate to form Israel's next government to 60% on 28 Oct, up 34.5 points in the last 24 hours. The first mandate is the president's formal request to one member of the Knesset, Israel's parliament, to try to build a coalition. On 25 Oct the contract sat at its 7-day low of 15%. It then ran to a high of 73% on 28 Oct and gave back 13 points from that peak.

Over the 7 days the price rose 28 points, from 32% on 21 Oct. The other contracts in the event split the rest between two names: Gadi Eizenkot at 36% and Naftali Bennett at 0%. Kalshi asks the same question, whether the Times of Israel reports that the president hands Netanyahu the first mandate before 1 January 2027, and also prices it at 60%. Kalshi's separate contract on whether Netanyahu becomes prime minister, at 23%, asks a different question: receiving the mandate and forming a government are separate steps. Two separate books landing on one number for the same question count for more than either alone.

The market now gives nearly all the probability to two names, and traders lean towards Netanyahu. The jump straddles 27 October, the date the venue's rule gives for the vote. With Bennett at 0%, only a small remainder sits outside Netanyahu and Eizenkot. The view here rests on the price path alone, and on that path the retreat from 73% looks like the weaker part of the move. Eizenkot's 36% gives no sign that he took up the 13 points Netanyahu gave back.

The price path suggests 60% understates Netanyahu's chance, and he will probably receive the first mandate. The best case against is the pullback itself: if the traders who pulled the price off 73% expect Eizenkot to win more backing in parliament, he becomes the president's pick and his 36% is too low. The call is wrong if the Times of Israel reports before 1 January 2027 that the president tasked anyone other than Netanyahu.