Netanyahu's odds jump despite exit polls favouring the opposition

Polymarket traders lift him to 48%; Kalshi prices 22% and exit polls show an opposition lead

In one line: Netanyahu will not be sworn in as prime minister after the 27 October vote. Polymarket's 48% overstates him, and Kalshi's 22% sits nearer the evidence.

Exit polls after Israel's election on 27 October showed a bloc of opposition parties leading Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, the New York Times reported that day, on strong turnout with no clear winner. Voters for two leading Arab parties turned out in record numbers to oppose the Netanyahu government.

Polymarket traders moved the other way. The contract on Netanyahu being the next prime minister trades at 48%, up 21.5pp in 24 hours by the venue's count. Over 7 days it rose 18 points, from 28% on 21 Oct to 46% on 28 Oct, after swinging from a low of 19% on 27 Oct to a high of 58% on 28 Oct. Gadi Eizenkot is next in the event at 36%, with Naftali Bennett at 6%. Kalshi, asking the same question, prices Netanyahu at 22% and puts 63% on no one.

The exit polls and Kalshi point the same way, which makes Polymarket's price the outlier. Nobody has been sworn in, and the Times reports that forming a new government could take weeks or even months. Traders may be reacting to early counts that the reporting here does not carry, but on this evidence the 21.5-point rise looks stretched. History backs the move: Netanyahu was ousted twice and returned to power both times, the Times notes. An exit-poll lead seats no one, and if the opposition bloc cannot turn it into a coalition, he gets another chance.

The call is that Netanyahu stays out despite the 48% price, and it fails if the official count puts his coalition ahead of the opposition bloc and lifts this contract past its 58% high of 28 Oct. If it holds, Israel's next government forms without Netanyahu.

Sources

• Exit Polls in Israel Show No Clear Winner (New York Times)
• What to Expect Now That Polls Are Closed in Israel (New York Times)
• Twice before, Netanyahu was ousted then returned to power. (New York Times)
• Israeli Voting Ends After Strong Turnout With No Clear Winner (New York Times)
• 4 Things to Watch in the Israeli Election (New York Times)
• Arab Parties’ Strong Showing May Bring Role in Formation of Israel’s Next Government (New York Times)
• Israel’s economic future is on the ballot after Netanyahu offers a grim forecast. (New York Times)
• Netanyahu accuses Arab citizens of ‘trying to steal the elections’ in racial appeal to voters. (New York Times)
• Relatives of victims of the Oct. 7 attack are running for Parliament. (New York Times)