Traders cut Bennett's odds as Eizenkot leads race for Israel's top job

Kalshi prices Bennett at 4% after a 13-point fall from his 22 Oct high; Polymarket holds 9%

In one line: Bennett will not lead Israel's next government. Kalshi's 4% is about right, and Polymarket's 9% overstates his chance.

Traders on Kalshi cut Naftali Bennett's chance of becoming Israel's prime minister after the 2026 election to 4% on 27 Oct. The contract stood at 10% on 20 Oct and climbed to a 7-day high of 17% on 22 Oct. It has since lost 13 points, 7 of them in the last 24 hours, and touched 3% earlier today.

The rest of the event puts the job elsewhere. Gadi Eizenkot leads at 51% on Kalshi, with Benjamin Netanyahu at 25% and another 25% on no one taking office. Polymarket shows the same order, with Eizenkot at 53% and Netanyahu at 28%. Its Bennett contract sits at 9%, 4 points above Kalshi's.

The two venues agree on the order of the field, and two books agreeing count for more than either alone. Both rank Bennett far behind Eizenkot, and both give Netanyahu about a quarter. They part only on how much room Bennett keeps as a coalition partner who might still claim the top job.

The case for Polymarket's higher figure is that Israeli coalition talks can hand the premiership to a partner who does not lead the largest bloc. That is how Bennett took office in 2021. The path needs Eizenkot to fall short and step aside, and a favourite priced above half on both venues leaves it little room.

Bennett will not become prime minister after this election. Kalshi's 4% is close to fair, and Polymarket's 9% is too high. The call is wrong if he is sworn in before 27 Oct 2027, the contract's deadline, and a return to the 17% he held on 22 Oct would be the first sign of it. The call matters because it leaves the contest as Eizenkot against Netanyahu for control of Israel's next government.