Bennett's odds fall to 6% on Israel's scheduled election day

Both venues price him under one in ten while Eizenkot leads the field and Netanyahu runs second

In one line: Bennett will not be sworn in as Israel's next prime minister. Even 6% overstates his chance after an 11-point fall from his 22 Oct high.

Naftali Bennett's chance of becoming Israel's next prime minister fell to 6% on Polymarket on 27 Oct, the date the venue's rule names for the election. The contract stood at 13% on 20 Oct and peaked at 18% on 22 Oct before traders turned away from it. It is down 6 points over the 7 days and 11 points since that high.

The sharpest leg came last, a fall of 7.0 points in the last 24 hours. The rest of the event points elsewhere. Gadi Eizenkot leads at 54%, Benjamin Netanyahu stands at 27% and Avigdor Lieberman at 2%. Kalshi prices the same race in its own book and agrees on every name: Eizenkot 49%, Netanyahu 25%, Bennett 8%. Two independent books this close carry more weight than either alone.

The price path shows a steady exit from Bennett as polling day arrived, with the money settling on Eizenkot and Netanyahu. Traders are not pricing the vote itself but the oath that follows it. The venue's rule says that "to count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in," and both books put Bennett a distant third in that race. The evidence is thin, but it runs one way.

Bennett will not be sworn in as prime minister after this election, and 6% still overstates his chance. A fall from 18% to 6% inside a week, matched on Kalshi, reads as traders marking down his standing, not as noise. The best case on the other side is a split result that leaves both Eizenkot and Netanyahu short and lets a third name through. That case would show as Bennett's contract back above its 18% high by 28 Oct, the venue's resolution date, or as any report that he has been asked to form a government. The call matters because it leaves Israel's next government a contest between Eizenkot and Netanyahu.