Traders cut Iotova's odds of winning Bulgaria's presidency

Her price fell 25 points from its 22 Oct high, yet traders still expect her to top round one.

In one line: Iotova is favoured to win Bulgaria's presidency despite a 25-point slide from this week's peak; at 67% she looks underpriced.

Traders cut Iliana Iotova's chance of winning Bulgaria's presidency to 67% on 26 Oct, from 88% on 19 Oct, a fall of 21 points over the seven days. Most of the damage came late. The contract peaked at 92% on 22 Oct and has since lost 25 points, including 22.5 points in the last 24 hours. It touched 64% today and has recovered 3 points from that low.

Andrey Gyurov's contract in the same event rose to 32%, so the two candidates together account for almost all the probability in the event. The first-round contracts point the other way. Traders give Iotova 86% to win the most votes in round one and 88% on a first-round win by less than 10%. The bands from 10% to 20%, 30% to 40% and above 40% all trade at 1%.

Together the prices describe a candidate expected to finish first but not by enough to settle it. The resolution rule counts "any potential second round", so the gap between 86% for round one and 67% overall is the market's measure of runoff risk. Gyurov's contract rose to 32% over the same period.

The call is that Iotova wins the presidency, and 67% underrates her. Traders still make her a clear favourite to top round one, and that edge carries into a two-way contest. The fall since 22 Oct reads as fear of a close race, not evidence of a lost one. Gyurov's best case is that a first-round lead under 10 points leaves him within reach in a runoff. A count showing her ahead by only a few points would make him the better bet. Credible reporting that names Gyurov the winner proves this call wrong. So would this contract closing below 50% today, its listed resolution date.