Traders lift Vučić's list ahead of Serbia's vote tomorrow

United Serbia's odds of winning the most seats climbed 17 points in a week as the student list slipped.

In one line: Vučić's United Serbia list takes first place in tomorrow's National Assembly vote, an outcome the market still prices too low.

Traders have pushed Aleksandar Vučić's United Serbia list from 61% on 17 Oct to 78% on 24 Oct to win the most seats in tomorrow's election to Serbia's 250-member National Assembly. The contract touched a seven-day high of 82% on 24 Oct and has since given back 4 points from that high. In the last 24 hours it rose 7.0 points, the venue's own figure.

The event's only other contract, on the Student List, stands at 23%. Traders treat the race as a two-way contest, and the money that moved towards United Serbia this week came out of the student list's chances.

Traders now treat United Serbia as the clear favourite. The gains built across the whole week rather than in one jump, and the final day added the largest stretch. The 4-point retreat from the 82% high is small beside the 18 points gained since the low on 17 Oct. The student list's 23% is the market's whole case for an upset, and that case has weakened as polling day drew near.

United Serbia wins the most seats on 25 October, and 78% still underrates it. The strongest case against is the student list itself: a 23% price is a real chance, and the pull back from 82% shows traders are not all agreed. Official results from the 25 October vote giving the Student List more seats, or a seat tie it wins on valid votes, would prove the call wrong. A first-place finish leaves Vučić's list as the largest bloc in the National Assembly, the starting point for forming Serbia's next government.