Vučić holds the edge two days before Serbia votes

Traders give Vučić 72% to become prime minister, even as students campaign to end his party's reign.

In one line: Serbia's National Assembly will not elect and swear in Vučić as prime minister after the 25 October vote; a 72% price overrates him.

The Guardian reported on 22 October that Serbia's 6.5m voters go to the polls on 25 October in a watershed parliamentary election marked by civil unrest, allegations of irregularities and an uncertain outcome. A day earlier the same paper reported that a student protest movement, which has gripped the country for two years, will try to take power from a ruling party that has held it for 12 years. The New York Times took the other side on 22 October: Vučić may extend his grip by stirring the Balkans' unresolved nationalist resentments.

Traders on Polymarket give Vučić 72% to be Serbia's next prime minister, and the price rose over the last 24 hours. The daily marks were flat over the 7 days, 70% on 16 October and 70% on 23 October. On 22 October alone the price ran from a low of 64% to a high of 74%. The only other contract in the event, on Ilija Srdanović, stands at 13%.

The contract asks more than who wins the vote. Its rule says the next prime minister "must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government", by 30 June 2028. The ballot on 25 October meets none of that, because it only fills the assembly that will choose. So the price carries two bets: that his list wins, and that Vučić himself then takes the premiership. The reporting covers the first and calls it uncertain. No reporting addresses whether Vučić would take the premiership himself rather than install an ally, and a 10-point swing in a single day shows how unsettled the price remains.

The National Assembly will not elect and swear in Vučić as prime minister, and 72% overrates his chances. The strongest counter is the New York Times reading: nationalist feeling could hand his list a clear win and carry him into the post. The call is wrong if the National Assembly elects Vučić prime minister after this vote, and a price above 85% on 26 October, once the count is known, would be the first sign.

Sources