Traders now expect a Russia-Ukraine meeting this month

The October contract jumped from 16% to 59% in a week as US-Russia talks freed an American prisoner.

In one line: Russian and Ukrainian officials will not meet by 31 October; the St Petersburg talks were between Moscow and Washington, and the price runs ahead of them.

Russia freed Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old American held for more than four years, after Vladimir Putin met American representatives in St Petersburg, wkhm reported on 22 October. Outlookindia reported the same day that Russia pardoned the retired teacher at Donald Trump's request. Brit Hume of Fox News, quoted by Alternet on 22 October, attacked Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump's envoy, for calling Mr Putin a "humanitarian" during the talks. All four reports describe Russia dealing with America, not with Ukraine.

Traders read the talks as a sign that Moscow and Kyiv will meet within days. The contract on a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic meeting by 31 October rose 43 points over the 7 days, from 16% on 16 October to 59% on 23 October, and 45.5 points in the last 24 hours by the venue's figure. It touched 72% on 22 October and has since given back 13 points. The sister contract in the same event, for a meeting by 30 November, trades at 90%.

The price runs ahead of the reporting. The rule pays Yes only on "a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity", and it sets apart meetings conducted indirectly. That is the part no report has yet met: the St Petersburg talks put American and Russian officials in a room, not Ukrainian ones. The New York Times argued on 22 October that Russia has sought to keep the war apart from its business and diplomacy with America, and that the effort appears to be working. A Kremlin that wins warmer ties with Washington while giving up nothing has little reason to hurry into a room with Kyiv.

No meeting between Russian and Ukrainian officials will be reported by 31 October, and 59% overrates the chance of one. The best case for the other side is the 90% November price: traders see a meeting as probable within weeks, and talks that have just freed a prisoner could produce one at short notice. A report of Russian and Ukrainian officials meeting before 11:59pm ET on 31 October, with the contract paying Yes on 1 November, would prove the call wrong. If the call holds, Moscow keeps its new warmth with Washington while the war runs on untouched.

Sources