Puma Shen closes in on Chiang Wan-an in Taipei

Shen's odds climbed nine points in a week, though Chiang Wan-an still leads on both venues.

In one line: Chiang Wan-an wins Taipei's 28 November mayoral vote, and Polymarket's 42% for Puma Shen overrates his chances.

Traders lifted Puma Shen's chance of becoming Taipei's next mayor to 42% on Polymarket on 20 Oct, the contract's highest price in seven days. It stood at 33% on 13 Oct, a rise of 9 points over the week, and at 28% when this publication last wrote about it on 5 Oct. Since then it has gained about 14 points.

The last 24 hours added 3.3 points. Chiang Wan-an, the other contract in the Polymarket event, trades at 60%. Kalshi prices the race in the same shape: Shen, listed there as Shen Bo-yang, at 46%, Chiang at 57%, and three other candidates at 1% each.

Two independent books agree on the order of the race and on its direction. Both make Chiang the favourite and both have Shen within reach, with Kalshi the more generous to him by 4 points. That agreement argues against one venue running ahead of the other. It does not make Shen the likelier winner, because Chiang leads on every quote, and a climb since 5 Oct measures trader mood with the vote still 40 days away.

The last digest's view holds: Chiang wins the 28 November vote, and 42% overrates Shen. The best case for Shen is the trend itself, which would put him level with Chiang before polling day if it carries on at this pace. The call is wrong if the count from the 28 November election names Shen as Taipei's next mayor. The answer decides who governs Taiwan's capital for the coming term.