Traders back an exact 38.9 reading for Trump's approval average

The exact-38.9 contract rose 17 points over 7 days to lead every other outcome in today's event.

In one line: Trump's RCP approval average reads exactly 38.9% at 1pm ET on 19 Oct, a result the 46% price underrates.

Traders on Kalshi pushed the contract on whether Donald Trump's RealClearPolitics (RCP) approval average reads exactly 38.9% at 1pm ET today from 29% on 18 Oct to 46% on 19 Oct, a rise of 17 points over the 7 days. That makes 38.9 the most probable single reading in an event that splits the average into tenth-of-a-point buckets and resolves this afternoon.

The rest of the event puts the weight just below 39. The exactly-38.8 contract trades at 23% and exactly-38.7 at 7%. Above the favourite, exactly-39.0 sits at 5% and exactly-39.1 at 4%. The tails take the rest: 5% for a reading below 38.5 and 10% for one above 39.1.

Read together, the prices say traders expect the average to hold where it is or slip a tenth before the 1pm reading. An RCP average moves only when a poll enters it or drops out, so on the last day the question is whether a fresh poll lands in time. The upper tail is the odd feature. A 10% price for a reading above 39.1 outweighs either the 39.0 or the 39.1 bucket, which suggests traders see a strong poll for Mr Trump jumping the average past its near neighbours rather than nudging it.

The call is that the average reads 38.9% at 1pm ET today, and the 46% price underrates it. With the reading due today, the bucket traders have backed hardest is the best guide to where the average stands, and one day leaves little room for the poll that shifts it. The case against rests on the 38.8 bucket at 23%: one new survey below the current figure would pull the average down a tenth, and a release before 1pm would make that side right. The call is wrong if RCP's average shows any figure other than 38.9% at 1pm ET on 19 Oct. For a reader who never trades it, the result fixes Mr Trump's standing on the RCP average just under 39% for the day.