Flávio Bolsonaro is favoured, but not by a wide margin

The four-to-eight-point band falls 20 points in a week, while Vox Brasil shows Lula narrowly ahead.

In one line: Brazil's 25 October runoff ends within four points, whoever wins, so the 29% on a four-to-eight-point Flávio Bolsonaro win is too high.

A Vox Brasil runoff poll, published by riotimesonline on 18 October, puts Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 51% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro on 49%, a technical tie seven days before Brazil votes. The same outlet carries an Ipespe poll in which Flávio wins 59% of Caiado voters, 50% of Cury voters and 40% of Renan Santos voters, against Lula's 18%, 31% and 20%.

Traders have cut the four-to-eight-point Flávio band to 29% on Polymarket, down 20 points over the 7 days from 49% on 12 October and 1.5 points in the last 24 hours. It touched 27% on 18 October and is up 2 points since; the last digest, on 15 October, had it at 33%. A Flávio win by less than four points is now the event's largest band at 39%, with Lula by less than four at 20% and wider Flávio wins at 9% and 4%. On who wins, Polymarket gives Flávio 79% and Kalshi 80%, two separate books in agreement.

The poll and the price disagree on the winner but agree on the margin. A tied poll argues that 79% is too confident, though one survey does not make Lula the favourite, and the Ipespe transfers explain why traders lean to Flávio. On the size of the win, both point the same way: a contest decided by less than four points. Paydayreport.com wrote on 17 October that Lula is back in the fight after shortening the working week from six days to five.

This column called a four-to-eight-point Flávio win on 15 October; the week's evidence points to a closer race. The 25 October runoff ends with a margin under four points, whoever wins, and 29% still overrates a clear Flávio victory. The best case against rests on Ipespe: if those voters break to Flávio that heavily, four points is within reach, and polls after this week's final TV debate showing it would make it right. The call is wrong if the official count of valid votes after 25 October gives either candidate a margin of four points or more. A result that close leaves Flávio's pledge to cut at least ten of 39 ministries, and his push for environmental deregulation, in doubt until the count.

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