Traders back Vučić's list to win the most Serbian seats

United Serbia jumped 8.5 points in a day to 69%, with 7 days to the 25 October vote.

In one line: United Serbia finishes first on 25 October, and 69% underrates it. Official results giving the student list more seats would prove this wrong.

Traders lifted Aleksandar Vučić's United Serbia list to 69% on Polymarket to win the most seats in Serbia's parliamentary election, set for 25 October. Over the 7 days the contract rose 7 points, from 62% on 11 Oct. In the last 24 hours it rose 8.5 points, and it now sits 1 point below its 7-day high of 70%, reached on 18 Oct.

The event is a two-list race on this book. Student List – Students Win, the only other contract, trades at 30%, so the two prices together cover almost the whole field. The rule pays the list that wins the greatest number of the 250 seats in the National Assembly, with ties broken by total valid votes. Since its 7-day low of 56% on 11 Oct, United Serbia has gained 13 points.

The price says traders expect United Serbia to finish first, and they grew surer of it in a single day. The student list still holds a 30% price, close to one in three, a real chance for the runner-up. A swing of 13 points since the 11 Oct low shows how fast this book moves, and a late jump can run either way in the 7 days left. Only the official results after 25 October settle the contract.

The evidence is thin, a week of prices and one rival, but its direction is plain. United Serbia wins the most seats on 25 October, and 69% underrates it: traders have added 13 points since the low and hold the price within a point of the week's high. The best case against is that a move this sharp can unwind before polling day, and a fall back towards the 56% low would make it. The call is wrong if the official results give Student List – Students Win more seats than United Serbia. The result decides which list leads Serbia's 250-member National Assembly.