Pete Fry is now the strong favourite in Vancouver

A 35.5-point rise in a day lifts Fry to 94%, with no rival above 3%.

In one line: Pete Fry will be Vancouver's next mayor, and even 94% slightly understates a field in which no rival trades above 3%.

Traders on Kalshi have made Pete Fry the clear favourite to become Vancouver's mayor, lifting his contract 35.5 points in the last 24 hours to 94%. The climb ends a week that swung both ways. The contract stood at 65% on 11 Oct and fell to its 7-day low of 55% on 14 Oct. It has risen 39 points since that low and 29 points over the 7 days.

The rest of the field trades near zero. Ken Sim, the only other candidate with a price, trades at 3%. John Coupar, Kareem Allam, Kirk LaPointe, Rebecca Bligh and Sean Orr all sit at 0%. No name in the event but Fry's trades above 3%.

The shape of the week matters more than the final number. The fall to 55% on 14 Oct showed traders still saw a contest. The jump over the past day did not nudge that view; it replaced it. A field of seven now prices one name at 94% and its nearest rival at 3%, so traders are pricing one result, not weighing two candidates. That view rests on the price alone, and a price is a forecast. Only the city's official result can say who won.

On these prices Fry is the overwhelming favourite to win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, and with no rival above 3% the stronger case is that 94% sits low, though a price path alone is thin ground for that view. The best case against is that the same contract stood at 55% on 14 Oct, and a book that swings that far that fast can swing back. An official result naming Ken Sim or any other candidate as mayor would prove the call wrong, as would the Fry contract falling back below its 11 Oct level of 65% before the venue resolves it on 17 Oct 2027.